On 2026-05-26, before the BLS release, RAOSCAFF locked May-2026 US CPI energy-commodities at +39.65% YoY, 80% band [+33.4%, +43.5%]. The print landed ~+40% (gasoline, all types, +40.5% — the dominant component of the energy-commodities index) — inside the band and about a point from the locked figure. P-01 is a HIT. We resolve it honestly, name the series-confusion trap, and add the first scored result to the public track record.
Gasoline (all types) printed +40.5% YoY — and gasoline is the dominant component of CPI energy-commodities, so the index landed ~+40%: inside our 80% band and ~1 point from the +39.65% locked figure. Note the trap: the BROAD energy index (+23.5%) includes energy services and is a DIFFERENT series — not the metric we locked.
On 2026-05-26 we locked a single falsifiable number — May-2026 US CPI energy-commodities at +39.65% YoY, with an 80% band of [+33.4%, +43.5%] — 15 days before the BLS release. The May print: gasoline (all types) +40.5% YoY, and since gasoline dominates the energy-commodities index, the index came in ~+40%. That is inside our band and roughly one point above the locked point estimate. P-01 resolves as a HIT.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Locked point (2026-05-26) | +39.65% YoY |
| Locked 80% band | [+33.4%, +43.5%] |
| Actual (gasoline all-types, the dominant component) | +40.5% YoY |
| Result | HIT · inside band · ~1pt point error |
A lazy read would call this a miss: the headline BROAD energy index rose only +23.5% YoY. But that is a different series — it blends energy commodities (gasoline, fuel oil) with energy services (electricity, utility gas), and services dragged the blend down. We locked energy-commodities specifically, which is gasoline-dominated and came in ~+40%. We flag this explicitly because scoring against the wrong series is exactly the kind of error our resolution discipline exists to prevent.
Transparency note: the exact energy-commodities decimal could not be independently re-fetched at resolution time (BLS and several outlets blocked automated access), so we anchor on the verified gasoline figure (+40.5%) plus the structural fact that gasoline dominates the index. The band is wide enough that the hit is unambiguous regardless of the exact decimal.
P-01 was the series' first lock: a single number, banded, timestamped 15 days early, on a methodology we said was the asset. It hit. We add it to the public scoreboard as our first resolved result — a hit — under the same rule we apply to misses (P-02 is on the board as a Brier-1.0 miss). Locked confident; resolved honest, win or lose.
Resolution rule: the BLS May-2026 CPI energy-commodities 12-month change, first-print. Scored by band-hit (inside [+33.4%, +43.5%]?) and point error (|actual − 39.65%|). Result: inside band, ~1-point error. The broad energy index is explicitly excluded as the wrong series.
This resolution flips P-01 from 'scoring' to resolved-hit on /intel/track-record. The scoreboard now carries one resolved hit (P-01) and one resolved miss (P-02) — both scored against the literal locked criterion, both public. That is the entire point of the series.
RAOSCAFF resolves P-01 on the published BLS May-2026 CPI. Locked 2026-05-26 at +39.65% [+33.4%, +43.5%]; actual energy-commodities ~+40% (gasoline +40.5%, dominant component). Result: HIT — inside band, ~1-point error. Scored honestly against the literal locked metric, not the broad energy index.
We publish the hit with the same discipline as the miss — anchored on the verified figure, with the series-confusion trap named in the open.