Q2-2026 global deliveries, locked at 424,000 with a full bucket distribution — before Tesla's ~July 2 release. Built bottom-up from regional registration data: Europe roaring off a low base, the US contracting double-digits, China disciplined for exports. Above the ~401k Street, fading the prediction markets' bull tail.
Above the ~401k FactSet Street consensus (in line with Goldman's 420k bottom-up). Distribution: [400–425k)=35%, [425–450k)=33%. We fade the prediction markets' bull tail (Kalshi ~432k median). Scored against Tesla's reported integer, not a beat/miss.
We lock a point of 424,000 global deliveries and the full bucket distribution below. The two central buckets (400–425k and 425–450k) jointly hold 68% and straddle the line where our bottom-up point and the prediction-market median sit on opposite sides.
| Bucket | Locked probability |
|---|---|
| < 385,000 | 5% |
| 385,000 – 400,000 | 11% |
| 400,000 – 425,000 (primary) | 35% |
| 425,000 – 450,000 | 33% |
| 450,000 – 475,000 | 13% |
| ≥ 475,000 | 3% |
We build the global figure from the Q2'25 regional base and each region's verified YoY signal: Europe roaring off a collapsed base (Goldman ~+85–90%, ACEA April +46.5%), the US genuinely contracting (Motor Intelligence May −12.1%; Goldman 'mid-teens'), and China disciplined for exports (CPCA May retail +22.5%, but wholesale inflated by export units recognised elsewhere).
| Region | Q2'25 base | YoY | Q2'26 est |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 143,000 | −14% | ~123,000 |
| China | 128,000 | +12% | ~143,000 |
| Europe | 45,000 | +85% | ~83,000 |
| Rest of world | 68,100 | +5% | ~71,500 |
| Total | 384,122 | ~421,000 → 424k |
Honestly stated: 424k is above the ~401k FactSet Street consensus, and in line with Goldman's independent 420k bottom-up. Our edge is twofold: discipline on China (refusing to read a +39% wholesale headline as +39% deliveries when ~45% of Shanghai output is exports recognised elsewhere), and respecting that the US — roughly a third of the base — is contracting double-digits. Net: we put only 16% above 450k versus the prediction markets' heavier upper tail (Kalshi ~432k median).
A bottom-up corporate-KPI build: regional registration/insurance proxies (ACEA, CPCA, Motor Intelligence) applied to the Q2'25 regional base, plus a partial draw on the +50,363 Q1-end inventory buffer. We score against Tesla's single reported integer — not the Street beat/miss, which is whisper-gameable.
Above 450k if Tesla draws the full inventory buffer and China prints a domestic blowout. Below 400k if US weakness deepens and China exports drag harder than modelled. A bucket miss resolves against the reported integer either way. We pre-commit these so the score is read against Tesla's number, not a narrative.
RAOSCAFF locks P-05 on 2026-06-20, before Tesla's Q2-2026 Production & Deliveries release (~July 2). We score the locked distribution by Brier against the single reported global-deliveries integer in Tesla's release — not against the Street beat/miss.
Half-open buckets with a stated tie-break, so there is no ambiguity about which side of a boundary the reported integer lands.