The July 28–29 FOMC will NOT cut the federal funds rate — the target range stays at or above its current 3.50–3.75%. We lock the robust 'no-cut' binary (held-or-higher), not a fragile 'hold', because the only live alternative is a hike, not a cut. Markets price no-cut near-certain; we put it on the record before the statement.
CME FedWatch (mid-June 2026) prices ~89% hold / ~9% hike / ~2% cut — so P(no cut) ≈ 98%. The June 17 meeting held at 3.50–3.75%. We lock the held-or-higher binary and score the literal July 29 statement.
We lock a single binary: the FOMC will not cut at the July meeting — the target range will be held at 3.50–3.75% or moved higher. The market's own pricing makes the cut a ~2% tail.
| Outcome | Locked probability |
|---|---|
| Cut (lower range) | ~2% |
| Hold 3.50–3.75% (modal) | ~89% |
| Hike (higher range) | ~9% |
| Our locked call — NO CUT (hold or hike) | ~98% |
At the June 17, 2026 meeting the FOMC left the target range unchanged at 3.50–3.75%. As of mid-June, CME FedWatch prices the July meeting at roughly 89% hold and 9% hike, with only ~2% on a cut. The active debate among Fed-watchers is hold-versus-hike on sticky services inflation — a cut is simply not the conversation.
Sources: Federal Reserve 2026 FOMC calendar (federalreserve.gov, Jul 28–29); CME FedWatch Tool (verified 2026-06-20).
A naive lock would say 'hold.' But the residual risk here is a hawkish hike, not a cut — so 'hold' could be falsified by an outcome that proves our directional read more right, not less. Locking the robust 'no-cut' binary (held-or-higher) is the honest framing: it survives both a hold and a hike, and falsifies only on the ~2% cut. This is the P-02 lesson applied — pick the criterion that can't be beaten by being right.
We take the market-implied distribution (CME FedWatch) as the base rate and overlay the Committee's stated reaction function (sticky inflation, no recession trigger) — both point the same way. Scored as a clean binary against the published target range in the July 29 statement.
The only path to a miss is a shock emergency cut — a sudden financial-stability event or a labour-market cliff between the lock and the meeting, forcing the Fed to ease. The market puts that near ~2%. If it happens, we score the binary as falsified, plainly.
RAOSCAFF locks P-07 on 2026-06-20, before the Jul 28–29 FOMC meeting. The commit timestamp is the cryptographic lock. We score the no-cut binary against the literal federal-funds target range in the July 29 statement — not against tone or dots.
Held-or-higher is one clean line in one document on a fixed date — no ambiguity at resolution.