BYD files unit sales on the 1st of every month. April (321,123) and May (383,453) are public — 704,576 NEVs of the quarter already booked. We lock Q2-2026 total NEV sales above 950,000: it needs only ~245k in June, far below the monthly run-rate. The same component-sum method as TSMC, on the world's largest EV maker.
The lock needs only ~245,424 units in June — against a run-rate that printed 383,453 in May alone. Two of three months are filed; June files ~July 1.
We lock BYD's total Q2-2026 NEV sales (April + May + June) at greater than 950,000 units. With two months public, June need only clear ~245k — roughly two-thirds of its own May number.
| Month | NEV sales | Status |
|---|---|---|
| April 2026 | 321,123 | filed |
| May 2026 | 383,453 | filed |
| June 2026 (needed for lock) | > ~245,424 | files ~Jul 1 |
| Q2 total (locked floor) | > 950,000 | resolves Jul 1 |
BYD's May 2026 NEV sales of 383,453 (+0.26% YoY) ended an eight-month run of year-on-year declines, led by a record 160,644 overseas units (42.6% of the mix). April was 321,123. Monthly volumes have run 300k–390k all year. For the Q2 lock to fail, June would have to collapse below ~245k — well under the floor of the recent range.
Sources: BYD HKEX/SSE monthly production & sales filings via CnEVPost (April & May 2026); verified 2026-06-20.
The bearish headline on BYD is the YoY-decline streak. But our lock is about absolute Q2 units, not the YoY direction: 704,576 already booked across two months means even a sequentially weak June clears 950,000 comfortably. We deliberately separate the (real) demand-softness narrative from the (near-deterministic) quarterly-total arithmetic.
Identical to P-08: sum the issuer's own already-filed monthly unit reports, set the threshold below the run-rate, and score against the reported quarterly total. The June filing (~July 1) closes the quarter inside our window.
A miss requires June below ~245k units — a sudden domestic-demand cliff plus an overseas-shipment stall in a single month, or a reporting-basis change. Against a 350k+ run-rate this is low-probability; the residual ~9% is our honest confidence gap.
RAOSCAFF locks P-09 on 2026-06-20. April and May unit sales are already public; the June filing (~July 1) completes the quarter. We score the >950,000-unit threshold against BYD's reported Q2 total.
Two of three months are public now — the arithmetic is checkable before resolution.