90% probability Coca-Cola's Q2 2026 organic revenue growth lands at or above 3% — inside its raised FY2026 guide of 4–5% after a +10% Q1. A structural-floor call on a defensive staple. Resolves late July 2026.
Coca-Cola grew Q1 2026 organic revenue +10% and raised its full-year 2026 organic-growth guidance to 4–5%; it flagged that a couple of points of concentrate-shipment timing would unwind into Q2, but the franchise's pricing + mix keeps growth solidly positive. Our 3% floor sits below the FY guide. Source: Coca-Cola Q2 2026 results, ~late Jul 2026 (coca-colacompany.com).
We lock a binary: Coca-Cola's Q2 2026 organic revenue growth is at or above 3%, per the company's results release. Confidence 90%.
Coca-Cola's pricing power and global mix have driven steady mid-to-high-single-digit organic growth; Q1 ran +10% and the full year is guided to 4–5%. Even with the flagged concentrate-timing unwind in Q2, a 3% floor leaves a buffer. Confidence 90%, not higher, for the tail of a sharp demand or FX-linked pricing shock. Resolves against Coca-Cola's reported Q2 organic growth.
RAOSCAFF locks P-101 on 2026-06-25, before the Q2 release. Scored against Coca-Cola's reported Q2 2026 organic revenue growth versus a 3% floor.
Scored on organic revenue growth (the company's headline metric), below the 4–5% FY guide — a cushioned floor.