Calibrated 80% probability India's Nifty 50 closes 2026 at or above 22,000 — a structural floor ~8% below the ~24,022 spot in late June, while brokerage year-end targets cluster 28,500–29,300. A floor, not a target chase. Resolves 31 Dec 2026 via the NSE close.
The Nifty 50 closed 24,021.65 on 24 Jun 2026; brokerage year-end 2026 targets cluster 28,500–29,300 (Nomura 29,300, Reuters poll 28,500, JPMorgan 30,000). Our 22,000 floor sits ~8% below the current level — clearing it only requires the index NOT to fall ~8% by year-end. Source: NSE Nifty 50 year-end close (nseindia.com); resolves 31 Dec 2026.
We lock a binary: India's Nifty 50 index closes the last trading session of 2026 at or above 22,000, per the NSE close. Confidence 80%.
With the Nifty near 24,022 and brokerage year-end targets clustered 28,500–29,300 (a double-digit upside view), our 22,000 floor only fails if the index falls roughly 8% by year-end. We hold a calibrated 80%, not higher, because equity indices are more volatile than a commodity floor — a global risk-off, an oil/geopolitical shock, or an FII outflow wave could compress the index past the floor. Resolves against the year-end NSE close.
RAOSCAFF locks P-102 on 2026-06-25, with the Nifty near ~24,022. Scored against the last-trading-day-of-2026 Nifty 50 close versus a 22,000 floor.
Structural floor (~8% below spot), not a target — the upside toward Street's 28,500–29,300 is open and not scored.