82% probability the Fed keeps the funds rate at 3.50–3.75% at its September 2026 meeting. June held 12-0 and futures price ~78% no change through December as an energy-inflation impulse offsets cut pressure. A calibrated central-bank call. Resolves ~17 Sep 2026.
The FOMC left the target range at 3.50–3.75% at its 17 Jun 2026 meeting in a unanimous 12-0 vote, and fed-funds futures price ~78% odds the rate is unchanged through December (cut odds ~15%, hike odds ~5%) as the Iran-driven energy-inflation impulse offsets easing pressure. Source: FOMC September 2026 statement (federalreserve.gov); resolves ~17 Sep 2026.
We lock a binary: the Federal Reserve keeps the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% at its September 2026 FOMC meeting, per the FOMC statement. Confidence 82%.
June's 12-0 hold and ~78% futures-implied 'no change through December' point to a steady hand, with an energy-inflation impulse from the Middle East conflict deterring cuts. We hold a calibrated 82% because September has tails on both sides — a softening labour market could pull a cut forward, while a hotter inflation print could force a hawkish surprise. Resolves against the September FOMC statement.
RAOSCAFF locks P-103 on 2026-06-25, after the June hold. Scored on whether the Fed keeps the funds-rate range at 3.50–3.75% at the September 2026 meeting.
Scored on the September decision only — a cut or a hike both count as a miss; later-2026 moves are out of this window.