90% probability Visa's fiscal Q3 2026 GAAP net revenue lands at or above $11.2bn — at least matching its FQ2 print and ~10% above the $10.17bn FQ3 FY25 base. A cushioned guidance-floor call on global payments. Resolves 28 Jul 2026.
Visa reported fiscal Q2 2026 net revenue of $11.2bn (+17% YoY) after $10.9bn in FQ1, and guided FQ3 to low-double-digit constant-dollar growth on the $10.17bn FQ3 FY25 base. Our $11.2bn floor only needs the quarter to roughly match FQ2 (≈+10% YoY) — below the guided trajectory. Source: Visa FQ3 2026 results, 28 Jul 2026 (investor.visa.com).
We lock a binary: Visa reports fiscal Q3 2026 GAAP net revenue at or above $11.2 billion, per the company's results release. Confidence 90%.
Visa's net revenue has compounded in the mid-teens; FQ2 hit $11.2bn and management guided FQ3 to low-double-digit growth off a $10.17bn year-ago base. Our $11.2bn bar only needs the quarter to roughly match FQ2 (≈+10% YoY), below the guide. Confidence 90%, not higher, because a cross-border/travel slowdown or a strong-dollar FX drag could pull reported GAAP revenue to the floor. Resolves against Visa's reported FQ3 net revenue.
RAOSCAFF locks P-104 on 2026-06-25, before the FQ3 release. Scored against Visa's reported fiscal Q3 2026 GAAP net revenue versus an $11.2bn floor.
Floor only needs the quarter to match the FQ2 $11.2bn print (≈+10% YoY) — a cushioned guidance-floor call, not the exact number.