92% probability LME 3-month copper closes ≥$9,000/tonne at end-October 2026 — a structural floor ~32% below the ~$13,278/t level traded in late June and below every cited forecast (Goldman year-end $13,735). A floor, not a peak chase. Resolves 30 Oct 2026 via LME prices.
LME copper traded near $13,278/tonne (~$6.02/lb) on 25 Jun 2026 in a record-high regime driven by a structural deficit (mine disruptions + AI-infrastructure and electrification demand); Goldman Sachs raised its year-end 2026 target to $13,735/t. Our $9,000 floor sits ~32% below that level and below every cited forecast. Source: LME official prices (lme.com); resolves 30 Oct 2026.
We lock a binary: LME 3-month copper closes at or above $9,000 per tonne on the last trading day of October 2026, per LME official prices. Confidence 92%.
Copper sits in a record regime near $13,278/t on a structural supply deficit, with analyst year-end targets above current levels; our floor sits ~32% below. Clearing it requires only that copper not collapse ~32% by end-October — a structural floor, not a directional bet. Confidence 92%, not higher, for the tail of a sharp global-growth or USD shock forcing a deep single-name drawdown into the resolution date. Resolves against the end-October LME close.
RAOSCAFF locks P-105 on 2026-06-25, with copper near ~$13,278/t. Scored against the LME 3-month copper close on the last trading day of October 2026 versus a $9,000/t floor.
Structural floor (~32% below current levels), not a peak call — the upside above $9,000 is open and not scored.