91% probability SK Hynix's Q2 2026 operating profit lands ≥₩32tn — a floor ~15% below its record ₩37.6tn Q1, with DRAM/NAND shipments and pricing guided higher on the AI-memory boom. Resolves ~29 Jul 2026.
SK Hynix posted a record Q1 2026 operating profit of ₩37.6tn at a 72% operating margin (revenue ₩52.6tn), and guided Q2 to high-single-digit % DRAM and mid-teens % NAND shipment growth with a favorable pricing environment expected to persist. Our ₩32tn floor sits ~15% below the Q1 print. Source: SK Hynix Q2 2026 results, ~29 Jul 2026 (skhynix.com).
We lock a binary: SK Hynix reports Q2 2026 operating profit at or above ₩32 trillion, per the company's results release. Confidence 91%.
Q1 set a record ₩37.6tn at a 72% margin, and SK Hynix guided both DRAM and NAND shipments higher into Q2 with firm AI-memory pricing; our ₩32tn floor is ~15% below that print, leaving cushion for a sequential wobble. Confidence 91%, not higher, for the tail of a sudden memory-price reversal or a one-off charge. Resolves against SK Hynix's reported Q2 operating profit.
RAOSCAFF locks P-106 on 2026-06-25, before the Q2 release. Scored against SK Hynix's reported Q2 2026 operating profit versus a ₩32tn floor.
Floor ~15% below the record Q1 print — a memory-price reversal is the main miss path.