RaoscaffResearch
Prediction Series · Lock · Issue P-106
Prediction Series · P-106

SK Hynix's Q2 floor — ≥₩32tn op profit, locked at 91%.

91% probability SK Hynix's Q2 2026 operating profit lands ≥₩32tn — a floor ~15% below its record ₩37.6tn Q1, with DRAM/NAND shipments and pricing guided higher on the AI-memory boom. Resolves ~29 Jul 2026.

Type · Prediction Lock · earnings floor Locked · 2026-06-25 · before the Q2 results Resolves · ~2026-07-29 · SK Hynix Q2 2026 results (skhynix.com) Scored · binary: Q2 2026 operating profit ≥₩32tn yes/no
SK Hynix Q2 2026 operating profit · our locked floor
≥ ₩32tn
operating profit · vs ₩37.6tn record Q1

SK Hynix posted a record Q1 2026 operating profit of ₩37.6tn at a 72% operating margin (revenue ₩52.6tn), and guided Q2 to high-single-digit % DRAM and mid-teens % NAND shipment growth with a favorable pricing environment expected to persist. Our ₩32tn floor sits ~15% below the Q1 print. Source: SK Hynix Q2 2026 results, ~29 Jul 2026 (skhynix.com).

— 1 · The Locked Call

SK Hynix Q2 2026 operating profit lands ≥₩32tn — P = 0.91.

We lock a binary: SK Hynix reports Q2 2026 operating profit at or above ₩32 trillion, per the company's results release. Confidence 91%.

— 2 · Why it's nail-able

Volume and price both guided up off a record quarter — the floor sits ~15% below Q1.

Q1 set a record ₩37.6tn at a 72% margin, and SK Hynix guided both DRAM and NAND shipments higher into Q2 with firm AI-memory pricing; our ₩32tn floor is ~15% below that print, leaving cushion for a sequential wobble. Confidence 91%, not higher, for the tail of a sudden memory-price reversal or a one-off charge. Resolves against SK Hynix's reported Q2 operating profit.

Locked on 2026-06-25 — scored against SK Hynix's reported Q2 2026 operating profit.

RAOSCAFF locks P-106 on 2026-06-25, before the Q2 release. Scored against SK Hynix's reported Q2 2026 operating profit versus a ₩32tn floor.

Locked
2026-06-25 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves
~2026-07-29 — SK Hynix Q2 2026 results
Source
SK Hynix Q2 2026 earnings release (skhynix.com / news.skhynix.com)
Scored by
Binary: YES if Q2 2026 operating profit ≥₩32tn; NO otherwise

Floor ~15% below the record Q1 print — a memory-price reversal is the main miss path.