91% probability Boeing's first-half 2026 commercial deliveries total ≥285 aircraft — 250 were already delivered through end-May (+14% YoY) at a ~50–60/month pace, so June needs only ~35. A delivery-floor call on the ramp. Resolves ~mid-July 2026.
Boeing delivered 250 commercial aircraft through the end of May 2026 (vs 220 in the same 2025 period, +14%), with May alone at 60 jets (51 of them 737 MAX). At the demonstrated ~50–60/month pace, a ~35-jet June clears 285. Source: Boeing monthly Orders & Deliveries report (investors.boeing.com); resolves ~mid-July 2026.
We lock a binary: Boeing's total commercial-aircraft deliveries for the first half of 2026 (Jan–Jun, per its July monthly report) are at or above 285. Confidence 91%.
With 250 delivered through May at a 50–60/month run-rate, June needs only ~35 aircraft to reach 285 — well below the monthly pace, leaving cushion. Confidence 91%, not higher, because a repeat of the March 2026 wiring-issue pause hitting June could shift a handful of jets out of the half. Resolves against Boeing's official June/Q2 delivery disclosure.
RAOSCAFF locks P-107 on 2026-06-25, before the June/Q2 report. Scored against Boeing's reported first-half 2026 total commercial-aircraft deliveries versus a 285 floor.
Floor set ~25 below the implied H1 run-rate to absorb one weak month — a delivery pause is the main miss path.