90% probability the US 10-year Treasury yield closes end-September 2026 inside 3.75%–5.25% (inclusive) — it sat at 4.43% in late June and has mostly held 4.0–4.5%, with the band set wide on the upside for a possible September Fed hike. Resolves 30 Sep 2026 via FRED.
The US 10-year Treasury constant-maturity yield was 4.43% on 24 Jun 2026 (FRED DGS10) and, per Charles Schwab's mid-year outlook, has mostly held a 4.0–4.5% range since early March; markets price meaningful odds of a September Fed hike, so the band is set wide on the upside (5.25% ceiling) and below current levels (3.75% floor). Source: FRED DGS10 (fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10); resolves 30 Sep 2026.
We lock a binary: the US 10-year Treasury yield (FRED DGS10) closes the last trading day of September 2026 at a level inside the 3.75%–5.25% band (inclusive) — neither below 3.75% nor above 5.25%. Confidence 90%.
The 10-year has mostly traded a 4.0–4.5% range since March; our band gives ~80bp of room above and ~70bp below current levels, sized to absorb a September Fed hike or a risk-off rally. Confidence 90%, not higher, because a disorderly fiscal/inflation scare (a break above 5.25%) or a hard-landing flight-to-quality (a break below 3.75%) would require a regime change. Resolves against the end-September DGS10 close.
RAOSCAFF locks P-108 on 2026-06-25, with the 10-year at 4.43%. Scored against the FRED DGS10 close on the last trading day of September 2026 versus a 3.75%–5.25% band (inclusive).
A two-sided band call — a break above 5.25% OR below 3.75% both count as a miss; both require a regime break from the range held since March.