RaoscaffResearch
Prediction Series · Lock · Issue P-109
Prediction Series · P-109

Rams in January — a 2026 playoff berth, locked at 82%.

Calibrated 82% probability the LA Rams make the 2026 NFL playoffs. They enter as the Super Bowl LXI favorite with a 'make playoffs' / 'miss' line (-500/+375) that de-vigs to ~80% implied; we lock just above market. Resolves at season's end via the official standings.

Type · Prediction Lock · calibrated structural call Locked · 2026-06-25 · pre-season Resolves · ~2027-01-04 · official NFL final regular-season standings (nfl.com) Scored · binary: Rams qualify for the 2026 NFL playoffs yes/no
LA Rams 2026 playoff berth · our locked call
QUALIFY
any NFC seed · P = 0.82

The Los Angeles Rams enter 2026 as the Super Bowl LXI betting favorite, with a sportsbook 'make the playoffs' price around -500 and 'miss' at +375 — which de-vigs to roughly 80% implied — and a regular-season win total set at 11.5. We lock a calibrated 82%, just above the de-vigged market. Source: official NFL final 2026 standings (nfl.com), ~early Jan 2027.

— 1 · The Locked Call

The LA Rams qualify for the 2026 NFL playoffs — P = 0.82.

We lock a binary: the Los Angeles Rams qualify for the 2026 NFL playoffs (any of the seven NFC seeds), per the official final regular-season standings. Confidence 82%.

— 2 · Why it's a calibrated call

The -500/+375 line de-vigs to ~80% — we lock just above it, and disclose the gap.

The Rams are the Super Bowl favorite with a -500 'make the playoffs' line that, de-vigged against the +375 'miss', implies roughly 80% — and an 11.5 win total. We lock a calibrated 82%, marginally above the no-vig market, NOT a structural near-certainty. The honest tail: a quarterback or multi-star injury cascade on one of the league's hardest-rated schedules could drop them out of a deep NFC West. Resolves against the official standings.

Locked on 2026-06-25 — scored against the official NFL final 2026 standings.

RAOSCAFF locks P-109 on 2026-06-25, pre-season. Scored on whether the LA Rams qualify for the 2026 NFL playoffs.

Locked
2026-06-25 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves
~2027-01-04 — end of the 2026 NFL regular season
Source
Official NFL final 2026 regular-season standings / playoff bracket (nfl.com)
Scored by
Binary: YES if the Rams qualify for the 2026 playoffs; NO otherwise

Calibrated just above the de-vigged ~80% market (we disclose the gap) — an injury cascade on a hard schedule is the miss path. Locks the berth, not the title.