Dune 3's opening floor — ≥$60M, locked at 78%.

Calibrated 78% probability Dune: Part Three opens ≥$60M domestic (3-day) on 18–20 Dec 2026 — ~27% below the $82.5M Part Two open, set well below comp to absorb same-day Avengers: Doomsday competition. Resolves ~21 Dec 2026 via Box Office Mojo.

Type · Prediction Lock · box-office opening floor Locked · 2026-06-25 · ~6 months before release Resolves · ~2026-12-21 · Box Office Mojo / Deadline 3-day domestic open Scored · binary: domestic 3-day opening ≥$60M yes/no

Dune: Part Three domestic opening · our locked floor

≥ $60M

3-day domestic · vs $82.5M (Part Two)

Dune: Part Three is locked for a wide US release on 18 Dec 2026 (Warner Bros./IMAX), with IMAX showings reported to have sold out fast on pre-sale; the direct comp, Dune: Part Two, opened to $82.5M domestic in 2024. Our $60M floor sits ~27% below that comp to absorb same-day competition from Avengers: Doomsday. Source: Box Office Mojo / Deadline reported 3-day domestic opening; resolves ~21 Dec 2026.

— 1 · The Locked Call

Dune: Part Three opens ≥$60M domestic (3-day) — P = 0.78.

We lock a binary: Dune: Part Three grosses at or above $60 million in its domestic (US/Canada) 3-day opening weekend (18–20 Dec 2026), per the reported box-office tally. Confidence 78%.

— 2 · Why it's a calibrated call

Part Two opened $82.5M — but Avengers shares the date, so the floor sits well below comp.

Part Two's $82.5M open and strong IMAX pre-sale demand point to a big debut, and our $60M floor sits ~27% below that comp. We hold a calibrated 78%, not higher, because Avengers: Doomsday opens the SAME day and will split the premium/IMAX audience — front-loading competition that could pull Dune's 3-day domestic figure toward the floor. Resolves against the reported 3-day domestic opening.

Locked on 2026-06-25 — scored against the reported domestic 3-day opening for Dune: Part Three.

RAOSCAFF locks P-110 on 2026-06-25. Scored against Dune: Part Three's domestic (US/Canada) 3-day opening-weekend gross versus a $60M floor.

Locked: 2026-06-25 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves: ~2026-12-21 — after the 18–20 Dec 2026 opening weekend
Source: Box Office Mojo / Deadline reported domestic 3-day opening
Scored by: Binary: YES if the domestic 3-day opening ≥$60M; NO otherwise

Floor set ~27% below the Part Two comp precisely to absorb the same-day Avengers: Doomsday split — a calibrated call, not a lock.