80% probability the FIDE World Chess Championship 2026 classical match begins on or before 31 Dec 2026 — provisionally scheduled 23 Nov–17 Dec with both seats filled; the undecided host city is the live risk. Scored on the event, not the players. Resolves 31 Dec 2026 via FIDE.
FIDE has the 2026 World Championship provisionally scheduled 23 Nov–17 Dec 2026, with both seats filled (the reigning champion and the Candidates winner, decided in April 2026); the host city is still to be confirmed. The lock is on the match commencing, not on any individual's participation. Source: FIDE official announcement / match coverage (fide.com); resolves 31 Dec 2026.
We lock a binary: the FIDE World Chess Championship 2026 classical match begins — game 1 is played — on or before 31 December 2026, per FIDE. The criterion is the match commencing; it is NOT conditioned on any named player. Confidence 80%.
The match is provisionally set for 23 Nov–17 Dec with both seats decided, so the structural path to a 2026 start is clear. We hold a calibrated 80%, not higher, because the host city/sponsorship is still unconfirmed this late, and FIDE championship matches have slipped before — the live tail is a slip into early 2027. Resolves against FIDE's coverage of game 1, regardless of which players ultimately contest it.
RAOSCAFF locks P-111 on 2026-06-25. Scored on whether the FIDE World Chess Championship 2026 match begins on or before 31 December 2026 — the event, not any player's participation.
Scored on the SCHEDULED EVENT (does the match start), never on a named individual's choice to play — host-city/scheduling slippage into 2027 is the disclosed miss path.