94% probability the ECB does not cut at its 10 Sep 2026 meeting — the deposit rate stays ≥2.25%. After June's hike, September is a hold-vs-hike debate; a cut is off the table. We lock the near-certain side, not the hold-vs-hike direction. Resolves 10 Sep 2026.
The ECB raised its deposit facility rate to 2.25% at its June 2026 meeting, and markets price the 10 Sep 2026 decision as roughly 50/50 between a hold and a further hike — with a cut effectively off the table amid the Middle East energy-inflation impulse. We lock only the near-certain 'no cut' side. Source: ECB monetary-policy statement, 10 Sep 2026 (ecb.europa.eu).
We lock a binary: the ECB keeps its deposit facility rate at 2.25% or higher (i.e. does not cut) at its 10 Sep 2026 meeting, per the ECB statement. Confidence 94%.
Having hiked to 2.25% in June with an energy-inflation impulse still live, the ECB's September choice is between holding and another hike — markets put it near 50/50 — while a cut would require an abrupt disinflationary shock with no current basis. We deliberately lock only the 'no cut' side (NOT the hold-vs-hike direction, which is genuinely uncertain). Confidence 94%, shy of certainty, for the tail of a sudden growth/credit shock. Resolves against the September statement.
RAOSCAFF locks P-112 on 2026-06-25. Scored on whether the ECB's deposit facility rate is 2.25% or higher (no cut) after the 10 Sep 2026 meeting.
Locks the 'no cut' side only — the hold-vs-hike direction is ~50/50 and explicitly NOT predicted here.