93% probability Uber's Q2 2026 gross bookings land ≥$55bn — below its own $56.25–57.75bn guide (18–22% YoY cc) after a $53.7bn Q1. A cushioned guidance-floor on a structurally compounding metric. Resolves early Aug 2026.
Uber guided Q2 2026 gross bookings to $56.25–57.75bn (18–22% YoY constant-currency) after Q1 bookings rose 25% to $53.7bn, ahead of the ~$52.8bn estimate. Our $55bn floor sits below the low end of that guide. Source: Uber Q2 2026 results, ~early Aug 2026 (investor.uber.com).
We lock a binary: Uber's Q2 2026 gross bookings land at or above $55 billion, per the company's results release. Confidence 93%.
Uber's gross bookings have grown every quarter on Mobility + Delivery scale; Q1 hit $53.7bn and Q2 is guided to $56.25–57.75bn. Our $55bn floor sits below that guide, leaving cushion for an FX swing or a demand wobble. Confidence 93%, not higher, for the tail of a sharp travel/discretionary pullback. Resolves against Uber's reported Q2 gross bookings.
RAOSCAFF locks P-113 on 2026-06-25, before the Q2 release. Scored against Uber's reported Q2 2026 gross bookings versus a $55bn floor.
Floor sits below the company's own $56.25–57.75bn guide — a cushioned guidance-floor call.