Calibrated 88% probability Mastercard's Q2 2026 net revenue grows ≥8% YoY currency-neutral — below its own guide of low-end low-double-digits, with a Middle East drag flagged. A cushioned guidance-floor. Resolves late July 2026.
Mastercard grew Q1 2026 net revenue to $8.4bn (EPS +23%) and guided Q2 net-revenue growth to the low end of low-double-digits on a currency-neutral basis (ex-inorganic), citing a Middle East-conflict drag and a 1–2pt FX headwind. Our 8% floor sits below that guide. Source: Mastercard Q2 2026 results, ~late Jul 2026 (mastercard.com/investor).
We lock a binary: Mastercard's Q2 2026 net revenue grows at least 8% year-on-year on a currency-neutral basis, per the company's results. Confidence 88%.
Mastercard's payment-network volumes compound structurally, and management guided Q2 to low-end low-double-digit currency-neutral growth; our 8% floor sits a couple of points below. We hold a calibrated 88%, not higher, because the company explicitly flagged a Middle East-conflict hit to cross-border travel plus an FX headwind — a deeper drag is the live miss path. Resolves against Mastercard's reported Q2 net-revenue growth.
RAOSCAFF locks P-114 on 2026-06-25, before the Q2 release. Scored against Mastercard's reported Q2 2026 currency-neutral net-revenue growth versus an 8% floor.
Scored on currency-neutral net-revenue growth (the company's guided metric), below the low-double-digit guide.