94% probability Airbus delivers more commercial aircraft than Boeing in 2026 — a lead held every year since 2019, with Airbus targeting ~870 deliveries against a recovering Boeing. A structural near-certainty. Resolves ~Jan 2027.
Airbus reaffirmed a ~870 commercial-delivery target for 2026 (April 2026 update), while Boeing is still recovering (first-half 2026 deliveries on the order of ~285). Airbus has out-delivered Boeing every year since 2019. Source: Airbus + Boeing full-year 2026 delivery reports (airbus.com / boeing.com), ~Jan 2027.
We lock a binary: Airbus delivers more commercial aircraft than Boeing for calendar year 2026, per the two companies' published delivery tallies. Confidence 94%.
Airbus is targeting ~870 deliveries for 2026 and has out-delivered Boeing every year since 2019; Boeing's first-half run-rate (~285) leaves it far short of catching Airbus over a single year even as it recovers. Airbus's own constraint (Pratt & Whitney engine supply) caps its absolute number but not its lead. Confidence 94%, shy of certainty, for the tail of a severe Airbus-specific production halt. Resolves against the two published full-year tallies.
RAOSCAFF locks P-115 on 2026-06-25. Scored on whether Airbus's 2026 commercial deliveries exceed Boeing's.
Scored on the relative count (Airbus vs Boeing), not Airbus's absolute ~870 target — which the P&W engine crunch puts at risk but doesn't threaten the lead.