90% probability J&J's Q2 2026 adjusted EPS lands ≥$2.70 — matching Q1, below the ~$2.85 Street view, after J&J raised FY2026 adjusted-EPS guidance to $11.30–11.50. A cushioned structural-floor call. Resolves 15 Jul 2026.
J&J reported Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $2.70 (sales +9.9% to $24.1bn) and RAISED full-year 2026 adjusted-EPS guidance to $11.30–11.50; the Street pegs Q2 adjusted EPS near $2.85. Our $2.70 floor matches the Q1 print and sits below the Q2 estimate. Source: J&J Q2 2026 results, 15 Jul 2026 (investor.jnj.com).
We lock a binary: Johnson & Johnson reports Q2 2026 adjusted EPS at or above $2.70, per the company's results. Confidence 90%.
J&J just raised its full-year 2026 adjusted-EPS guidance to $11.30–11.50 and printed $2.70 in Q1; the Street sees ~$2.85 for Q2. Our floor simply asks Q2 to match Q1, well inside the raised guide. Confidence 90%, not higher, because adjusted EPS can be dented by a one-off operational miss or a guidance-relevant litigation development. Resolves against J&J's reported Q2 adjusted EPS.
RAOSCAFF locks P-116 on 2026-06-25, before the Q2 release. Scored against J&J's reported Q2 2026 adjusted EPS versus a $2.70 floor.
Scored on adjusted (non-GAAP) EPS — the company's guided metric, which excludes one-off items.