Airbnb's Q2 floor — ≥$3.45bn revenue, locked at 91%.

91% probability Airbnb's Q2 2026 revenue lands ≥$3.45bn — below its own $3.54–3.60bn guide (14–16% YoY). A cushioned guidance-floor on a structurally growing travel platform. Resolves early Aug 2026.

Type · Prediction Lock · guidance-floor threshold Locked · 2026-06-25 · before the Q2 results Resolves · ~2026-08-05 · Airbnb Q2 2026 results (investors.airbnb.com) Scored · binary: Q2 2026 revenue ≥$3.45bn yes/no

Airbnb Q2 2026 revenue · our locked floor

≥ $3.45bn

revenue · vs $3.54–3.60bn guide

Airbnb guided Q2 2026 revenue to $3.54–3.60bn (14–16% YoY, incl. a ~3% FX tailwind) after an 18% Q1, while flagging a ~100bps Middle East-conflict headwind to Nights & Seats booked. Our $3.45bn floor sits below the low end of that guide. Source: Airbnb Q2 2026 results, ~early Aug 2026 (investors.airbnb.com).

— 1 · The Locked Call

Airbnb Q2 2026 revenue lands ≥$3.45bn — P = 0.91.

We lock a binary: Airbnb's Q2 2026 revenue lands at or above $3.45 billion, per the company's results. Confidence 91%.

— 2 · Why it's nail-able

The floor sits below Airbnb's own guide on a still-growing booking base.

Airbnb guided Q2 to $3.54–3.60bn with low-double-digit gross-booking-value growth and an FX tailwind; our $3.45bn floor sits below that guide. Confidence 91%, not higher, because the company flagged a ~100bps Middle East-conflict drag on bookings — a deeper travel pullback is the miss path. Resolves against Airbnb's reported Q2 revenue.

Locked on 2026-06-25 — scored against Airbnb's reported Q2 2026 revenue.

RAOSCAFF locks P-117 on 2026-06-25, before the Q2 release. Scored against Airbnb's reported Q2 2026 revenue versus a $3.45bn floor.

Locked: 2026-06-25 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves: ~2026-08-05 — Airbnb Q2 2026 results
Source: Airbnb Q2 2026 shareholder letter / results (investors.airbnb.com)
Scored by: Binary: YES if Q2 2026 revenue ≥$3.45bn; NO otherwise

Floor sits below the company's own $3.54–3.60bn guide — a cushioned guidance-floor call.