Calibrated 87% probability PepsiCo's Q2 2026 organic revenue growth lands ≥1% — inside its affirmed FY2026 guide of 2–4% after a +2.6% Q1. A snacks-led staple where North America volume is the swing. Resolves 9 Jul 2026.
PepsiCo affirmed full-year 2026 organic revenue growth of 2–4% and grew Q1 2026 organic revenue +2.6%, with a Frito-Lay North America (PFNA) volume inflection cited as the recovery driver. Our 1% floor sits below the FY guide. Source: PepsiCo Q2 2026 results, 9 Jul 2026 (pepsico.com/investors).
We lock a binary: PepsiCo's Q2 2026 organic revenue growth is at or above 1%, per the company's results. Confidence 87%.
PepsiCo affirmed 2–4% organic growth for 2026 and grew Q1 +2.6%; our 1% floor sits below that. We hold a calibrated 87%, not higher, because the swing factor is Frito-Lay North America volume, which has been soft and is mid-turnaround — a weaker-than-expected snacks quarter is the live miss path. Resolves against PepsiCo's reported Q2 organic revenue growth.
RAOSCAFF locks P-118 on 2026-06-25, before the Q2 release. Scored against PepsiCo's reported Q2 2026 organic revenue growth versus a 1% floor.
Scored on organic revenue growth (the company's headline metric), below the +2–4% FY guide — Frito-Lay volume is the swing.