93% probability the Bank of England does not cut at its September 2026 meeting — Bank Rate stays ≥3.75%. June held 7-2 with two members voting to HIKE; the live debate is hold-vs-hike, not a cut. We lock the near-certain side. Resolves at the Sept MPC.
The BoE held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 18 Jun 2026 in a 7-2 vote — the two dissenters wanted a HIKE — and forecasters (e.g. Oxford Economics) see rates held through 2026 with traders pricing a possible hike, not a cut, amid rising H2 inflation. We lock only the 'no cut' side. Source: BoE MPC September 2026 statement (bankofengland.co.uk).
We lock a binary: the Bank of England keeps Bank Rate at 3.75% or higher (i.e. does not cut) at its September 2026 MPC meeting, per the BoE statement. Confidence 93%.
June's hold was 7-2 with both dissenters voting to RAISE, inflation is set to rise further in H2 2026, and forecasters see Bank Rate held (with hike risk) rather than cut. A September cut would reverse the entire stance with no current basis. We lock only the 'no cut' side (NOT the hold-vs-hike direction). Confidence 93%, shy of certainty, for the tail of an abrupt UK growth/credit shock. Resolves against the September statement.
RAOSCAFF locks P-119 on 2026-06-25. Scored on whether Bank Rate is 3.75% or higher (no cut) after the September 2026 MPC meeting.
Locks the 'no cut' side only — the hold-vs-hike direction is genuinely uncertain and NOT predicted here. (Resolution tracks the scheduled September MPC decision.)