Goldman's Q2 floor — ≥$14.0bn net revenue, locked at 92%.

92% probability Goldman Sachs's Q2 2026 net revenue lands at or above $14.0bn — ~11% below the ~$15.7bn consensus. A structural-floor call on the biggest US investment bank. Resolves 14 Jul 2026.

Type · Prediction Lock · structural revenue floor Locked · 2026-06-26 · before the Q2 results Resolves · 2026-07-14 · Goldman Sachs Q2 2026 results (goldmansachs.com) Scored · binary: Q2 2026 net revenue ≥$14.0bn yes/no

Goldman Sachs Q2 2026 net revenue · our locked floor

≥ $14.0bn

net revenue · vs ~$15.7bn consensus

Analyst consensus for Goldman's Q2 2026 is ~$15.68bn net revenue and ~$13.78 EPS. Our $14.0bn floor sits ~11% below consensus. Source: Goldman Sachs Q2 2026 results, 14 Jul 2026 (goldmansachs.com/investor-relations).

— 1 · The Locked Call

Goldman Sachs Q2 2026 net revenue lands ≥$14.0bn — P = 0.92.

We lock a binary: Goldman Sachs reports Q2 2026 net revenue at or above $14.0 billion, per the company's results release. Confidence 92%.

— 2 · Why it's nail-able

The floor sits ~11% below consensus — a cushion against a soft trading quarter.

Goldman's diversified franchise (markets + banking + asset & wealth) consistently clears mid-teens-billions quarterly; our bar is ~11% under the ~$15.7bn consensus. Confidence 92%, not higher, because trading and investment-banking revenue can swing on a quiet markets quarter. Resolves against the reported Q2 net revenue.

Locked on 2026-06-26 — scored against Goldman Sachs's reported Q2 2026 net revenue.

RAOSCAFF locks P-120 on 2026-06-26, before the Q2 release. Scored against Goldman Sachs's reported Q2 2026 net revenue versus a $14.0bn floor.

Locked: 2026-06-26 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves: 2026-07-14 — Goldman Sachs Q2 2026 results
Source: Goldman Sachs Q2 2026 earnings release / 8-K (goldmansachs.com)
Scored by: Binary: YES if Q2 2026 net revenue ≥$14.0bn; NO otherwise

Structural revenue floor ~11% below consensus — a quiet trading/IB quarter is the main miss path.