Exxon's Q2 floor — adj EPS ≥$2.50, locked at 88%.

88% probability ExxonMobil's Q2 2026 adjusted EPS lands at or above $2.50 — a floor ~29% below the ~$3.50 consensus, built to absorb oil-price softness. Resolves ~31 Jul 2026.

Type · Prediction Lock · structural earnings floor Locked · 2026-06-26 · before the Q2 results Resolves · ~2026-07-31 · ExxonMobil Q2 2026 results (exxonmobil.com) Scored · binary: Q2 2026 adjusted EPS ≥$2.50 yes/no

ExxonMobil Q2 2026 adjusted EPS · our locked floor

≥ $2.50

adjusted EPS · vs ~$3.50 consensus

Analyst consensus for ExxonMobil's Q2 2026 is ~$3.5 EPS (range ~$3.5–3.75). Our $2.50 floor sits ~29% below consensus — a wide cushion against an oil-price pullback. Source: ExxonMobil Q2 2026 results, ~31 Jul 2026 (exxonmobil.com/investors).

— 1 · The Locked Call

ExxonMobil Q2 2026 adjusted EPS lands ≥$2.50 — P = 0.88.

We lock a binary: ExxonMobil reports Q2 2026 adjusted EPS at or above $2.50, per the company's results release. Confidence 88%.

— 2 · Why it's nail-able — and why only 88%

A ~29% cushion below consensus absorbs oil softness — but a crude crash is the tail.

Exxon's integrated upstream/downstream model and its low-cost portfolio keep earnings resilient; our $2.50 floor is ~29% under the ~$3.50 consensus. Confidence 88%, not higher, because oil-major earnings are crude-price-sensitive — a sharp Brent/WTI decline or refining-margin collapse in the quarter is the miss path. Resolves against the reported adjusted EPS.

Locked on 2026-06-26 — scored against ExxonMobil's reported Q2 2026 adjusted EPS.

RAOSCAFF locks P-121 on 2026-06-26, before the Q2 release. Scored against ExxonMobil's reported Q2 2026 adjusted EPS versus a $2.50 floor.

Locked: 2026-06-26 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves: ~2026-07-31 — ExxonMobil Q2 2026 results
Source: ExxonMobil Q2 2026 earnings release / 8-K (exxonmobil.com)
Scored by: Binary: YES if Q2 2026 adjusted EPS ≥$2.50; NO otherwise

Structural floor ~29% below consensus — a crude-price crash is the only realistic miss path.