92% probability Arm Holdings' fiscal Q1 2027 revenue lands at or above $1.21bn — the low end of its own $1.26bn ±$50m guide (~20% YoY growth). A guidance-floor call on the chip-IP leader. Resolves ~5 Aug 2026.
At its record FQ4 FY2026 results (May 2026) Arm guided FQ1 FY2027 revenue to $1.26bn ±$50m (low end $1.21bn), ~20% YoY growth, with both royalty and licensing up ~20%, and adjusted EPS of $0.40. Our $1.21bn floor is the low end of that guide. Source: Arm Holdings FQ1 2027 results, ~5 Aug 2026 (arm.com/company/investors).
We lock a binary: Arm Holdings reports fiscal Q1 2027 revenue at or above $1.21 billion, per the company's results release. Confidence 92%.
Arm guided FQ1 to $1.26bn ±$50m on ~20% growth in both royalties (a widening installed base) and licensing; our bar sits at the bottom of that band, and Arm has repeatedly beaten its guide. Confidence 92%, not higher, because licensing revenue is lumpy quarter-to-quarter. Resolves against Arm's reported FQ1 revenue.
RAOSCAFF locks P-122 on 2026-06-26, before the FQ1 release. Scored against Arm's reported fiscal Q1 2027 revenue versus a $1.21bn floor.
Floor = the low end of the company's own $1.26bn ±$50m guide — a cushioned guidance-floor call.