Calibrated 82% probability McDonald's posts positive global comparable sales (>0%) in Q2 2026. Q1 ran +3.8% but the company flagged a Q2 deceleration on tough comps — the call is that comps stay above the zero line. Resolves ~6 Aug 2026.
McDonald's Q1 2026 global comparable sales rose 3.8% (its strongest in eight quarters); management flagged that Q2 comps would decelerate on tough prior-year comparisons, especially in April. The call is that comps stay positive. Source: McDonald's Q2 2026 results, ~6 Aug 2026 (corporate.mcdonalds.com).
We lock a binary: McDonald's reports positive global comparable sales (greater than 0%) for Q2 2026, per the company's results release. Confidence 82%.
Q1's +3.8% showed real momentum (value platforms, menu news), but management explicitly guided to a softer Q2 against tough comps; a sharp deceleration could brush the zero line. That is why this is a calibrated 82% rather than a structural lock. Resolves against McDonald's reported Q2 global comparable sales.
RAOSCAFF locks P-123 on 2026-06-26, before the Q2 release. Scored against McDonald's reported Q2 2026 global comparable sales versus a 0% floor.
Scored on global comparable sales (the company's headline metric) — a flagged Q2 deceleration is the disclosed tail.