88% probability the US Q2 2026 real GDP advance estimate prints at or above 1.0% annualized — a floor well under the Atlanta Fed GDPNow ~3.0% nowcast. Resolves ~30 Jul 2026 via the BEA.
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model nowcast US Q2 2026 real GDP growth at ~3.0% as of 17 Jun 2026 (down from ~3.7–3.8% earlier in the quarter). Our 1.0% floor sits well below that nowcast. Source: BEA Q2 2026 GDP advance estimate (bea.gov); resolves ~30 Jul 2026.
We lock a binary: the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Q2 2026 real GDP advance estimate prints at or above 1.0% annualized, per the BEA release. Confidence 88%.
GDPNow tracked ~3.0% for Q2 by mid-June; our 1.0% floor leaves a two-point cushion against late-quarter data softening or a weaker-than-tracked advance print. Confidence 88%, not higher, because the advance estimate is the noisiest vintage (incomplete data, large net-trade/inventory swings can subtract). Resolves against the BEA advance figure.
RAOSCAFF locks P-124 on 2026-06-26. Scored against the US Q2 2026 real GDP advance estimate versus a 1.0% annualized floor.
Scored on the ADVANCE estimate specifically (the first vintage) — later revisions are out of scope.