85% probability Ford posts positive adjusted EBIT in Q2 2026. Full-year guidance is $8.5–10.5bn adj EBIT with Q2–Q4 expected fairly consistent — a structural call that the quarter stays profitable. Resolves ~29 Jul 2026.
Ford's updated full-year 2026 guidance is adjusted EBIT of $8.5bn–$10.5bn (raised from $8–10bn), with the company guiding Q2/Q3/Q4 to be fairly consistent with the full-year run-rate (~$2bn+/quarter). The call is simply that Q2 adjusted EBIT stays positive. Source: Ford Q2 2026 results, ~29 Jul 2026 (shareholder.ford.com).
We lock a binary: Ford Motor reports positive adjusted EBIT (greater than $0) for Q2 2026, per the company's results release. Confidence 85%.
Ford's full-year adjusted-EBIT guide of $8.5–10.5bn and its 'fairly consistent' quarterly framing imply ~$2bn+ of adj EBIT per quarter; a positive Q2 is the base case. We hold 85%, not higher, because autos are cyclical and Ford carries idiosyncratic risk — tariff costs, a large warranty/recall charge, or a Ford Pro/Model-e swing could compress a single quarter. Resolves against Ford's reported Q2 adjusted EBIT.
RAOSCAFF locks P-125 on 2026-06-26, before the Q2 release. Scored on whether Ford's Q2 2026 adjusted EBIT is positive.
Scored on adjusted EBIT (company total) — tariff costs or a large warranty charge are the disclosed tails.