Calibrated 82% probability Home Depot's fiscal Q2 2026 comparable sales are non-negative (≥0%) — its peak spring/summer quarter, with Q1 at +0.6% and a full-year guide of ~flat to +2.0%. Resolves ~18 Aug 2026.
Home Depot's fiscal Q1 2026 comparable sales rose 0.6% (US +0.4%) on $41.8bn revenue, and it reaffirmed full-year 2026 comp guidance of approximately flat to +2.0%. Q2 is its strongest seasonal quarter (spring/summer). Our floor is simply non-negative comps. Source: Home Depot FQ2 2026 results, ~18 Aug 2026 (homedepot.com / corporate).
We lock a binary: Home Depot reports non-negative comparable sales (zero or positive) for fiscal Q2 2026, per the company's results release. Confidence 82%.
Q1 comps were +0.6% with the full year guided to ~flat-to-+2%, and Q2 is Home Depot's seasonal peak; non-negative comps are the base case. We hold a calibrated 82% because home-improvement big-ticket spending is sensitive to mortgage rates and housing turnover — a soft quarter could dip comps just below zero. Resolves against Home Depot's reported FQ2 comparable sales.
RAOSCAFF locks P-126 on 2026-06-26, before the FQ2 release. Scored against Home Depot's reported fiscal Q2 2026 comparable sales versus a 0% floor.
Scored on total comparable sales — rate-sensitive big-ticket demand is the disclosed tail.