On 2026-06-26, before the release, RAOSCAFF locked a binary: Home Depot fiscal Q2 2026 comparable sales at or above 0%, confidence 82%. On 18 August the company reported comparable sales of +1.7%, with US comps +1.3% and total sales of $47.9bn up 5.7%, and reaffirmed full-year guidance. P-126 is a HIT.
Home Depot reported fiscal Q2 2026 comparable sales of +1.7% (US comparable sales +1.3%) on sales of $47.9bn, up 5.7%, with net earnings of $4.8bn or $4.79 per diluted share, and reaffirmed fiscal 2026 guidance. Source: The Home Depot FQ2 2026 results, 18 August 2026.
We locked a binary at 82% confidence: Home Depot's fiscal Q2 2026 comparable sales would be at or above zero. The reasoning was that the company had guided to roughly flat-to-positive comps for the year after a +0.6% first quarter, and that a housing-adjacent retailer with a professional customer base rarely swings negative in its strongest seasonal quarter. Comparable sales printed +1.7%. P-126 resolves as a HIT.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Locked criterion (2026-06-26) | FQ2 2026 comparable sales ≥0% |
| Stated confidence | ~82% |
| Actual comparable sales | +1.7% |
| US comparable sales (not the locked metric) | +1.3% |
| Total sales (not the locked metric) | $47.9bn, +5.7% |
| Result | HIT · cleared by 1.7 points |
The same release carried total comparable sales at +1.7%, US comparable sales at +1.3%, and total sales growth at +5.7%. Our locked criterion named total comparable sales, so that is what we scored. All three cleared zero in this case, so the distinction did not change the outcome — but we state it anyway, because the discipline only means something when it is applied before you know whether it matters. This is the same rule that governed P-01, where the locked sub-index and its better-known sibling moved seventeen points apart.
RAOSCAFF locked P-126 on 2026-06-26, before the print. It is scored here against the company's reported fiscal Q2 2026 comparable sales figure.
Scored on total comparable sales — the locked metric — not US comps and not total sales growth.