90% probability Lockheed Martin's Q2 2026 EPS lands at or above $6.00 — ~17% below the ~$7.20 consensus, backed by a record $194bn backlog. A structural-floor call on the top US defense prime. Resolves 21 Jul 2026.
Analyst consensus for Lockheed's Q2 2026 is ~$7.20 EPS; the company maintained FY2026 guidance (mid-single-digit sales growth, $8.4–8.7bn operating profit) and ended 2025 with a record $194.0bn backlog (~2.5x annual sales). Our $6.00 floor sits ~17% below consensus. Source: Lockheed Martin Q2 2026 results, 21 Jul 2026 (lockheedmartin.com/investors).
We lock a binary: Lockheed Martin reports Q2 2026 EPS at or above $6.00, per the company's results release. Confidence 90%.
Lockheed's record $194bn backlog (~2.5x annual sales) and steady FY2026 operating-profit guide ($8.4–8.7bn) underwrite quarterly EPS in the $6–7+ range; our $6.00 floor is ~17% below the ~$7.20 consensus. Confidence 90%, not higher, because Lockheed has periodically booked large classified/fixed-price program charges that can dent a single quarter's EPS. Resolves against the reported Q2 EPS.
RAOSCAFF locks P-127 on 2026-06-26, before the Q2 release. Scored against Lockheed Martin's reported Q2 2026 EPS versus a $6.00 floor.
Structural floor ~17% below consensus — a large fixed-price/classified program charge is the disclosed tail.