Pfizer holds the floor — FY26 EPS guide intact, locked at 88%.

88% probability Pfizer does not cut the lower bound of its FY2026 adjusted-EPS guidance ($2.80–$3.00) at its Q2 results. The guide (revenue $59.5–62.5bn) was reaffirmed at the December call and again at Q1. Resolves ~4 Aug 2026.

Type · Prediction Lock · guidance-floor binary Locked · 2026-06-26 · before the Q2 results Resolves · ~2026-08-04 · Pfizer Q2 2026 results (pfizer.com) Scored · binary: FY2026 adjusted-EPS guidance lower bound ≥$2.80 held yes/no

Pfizer FY2026 adj-EPS guidance floor · our locked call

≥ $2.80

FY26 adj diluted EPS lower bound held · P = 0.88

Pfizer provided FY2026 guidance of revenue $59.5–62.5bn and adjusted diluted EPS $2.80–$3.00 (Dec 2025) and reaffirmed all components at Q1 2026 (Q1 revenue $14.5bn, adj EPS $0.75, both above consensus). We lock that the Q2 print keeps the lower bound ≥$2.80. Source: Pfizer Q2 2026 results, ~4 Aug 2026 (pfizer.com).

— 1 · The Locked Call

Pfizer keeps its FY2026 adj-EPS guidance floor at Q2 — P = 0.88.

We lock a binary: at its Q2 2026 results, Pfizer does not cut the lower bound of its FY2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance ($2.80), per the company's release. Confidence 88%.

— 2 · Why it's nail-able — and why only 88%

Reaffirmed twice already — and Q1 beat — but a mid-year drug/LOE shock is the tail.

Pfizer reaffirmed the FY2026 guide at its December call and again at Q1 (which beat on both lines); cutting the floor mid-year would reverse that. We hold 88%, not higher, because pharma guidance can be trimmed on a clinical/regulatory setback, a faster loss-of-exclusivity erosion, or an FX swing. Resolves against the Q2 guidance.

Locked on 2026-06-26 — scored against Pfizer's Q2 2026 FY-guidance update.

RAOSCAFF locks P-129 on 2026-06-26, before the Q2 release. Scored on whether Pfizer's FY2026 adjusted-EPS guidance lower bound stays ≥$2.80.

Locked: 2026-06-26 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves: ~2026-08-04 — Pfizer Q2 2026 results
Source: Pfizer Q2 2026 earnings release / 8-K (pfizer.com)
Scored by: Binary: YES if FY2026 adjusted-EPS guidance lower bound ≥$2.80 is held; NO if cut below

Scored on the FY adjusted-EPS guidance lower bound — a mid-year clinical/LOE shock is the disclosed tail.