90% probability the US July 2026 unemployment rate prints at or below 5.0% — a ceiling well above the low-4% range that has held all year. A structural data-floor call. Resolves ~7 Aug 2026 via the BLS.
The US unemployment rate has held in the low-4% range through 2026 (May 2026 payrolls +172k); forecasters expect the July rate roughly unchanged even as hiring cools. Our 5.0% ceiling sits well above that. Source: BLS Employment Situation report for July 2026, released ~7 Aug 2026 (bls.gov).
We lock a binary: the US July 2026 headline (U-3) unemployment rate prints at or below 5.0%, per the BLS Employment Situation report. Confidence 90%.
With the unemployment rate anchored in the low-4% range all year, a single-month move above 5.0% would require a ~0.6–0.8pt spike — outside normal monthly variation. Confidence 90%, not higher, for the tail of a labour-market air-pocket (a sharp layoff wave or a participation surge). Resolves against the official BLS July figure.
RAOSCAFF locks P-130 on 2026-06-26. Scored against the US July 2026 headline unemployment rate versus a 5.0% ceiling.
Scored on the headline U-3 rate in the first July release — a wide ceiling above the prevailing low-4% level.