85% probability Delta's Q2 2026 EPS lands at or above $0.75 — below its own $1.00–$1.50 guide, on a seasonally strong summer quarter targeting ~$1bn pretax profit. Resolves 10 Jul 2026.
Delta guided June-quarter 2026 EPS to $1.00–$1.50 (with a ~6–8% operating margin and ~$1bn pretax profit, low-teens revenue growth on flat capacity); Wall Street consensus is ~$1.43. Our $0.75 floor sits below the low end of the company's own guide. Source: Delta Air Lines Q2 2026 results, 10 Jul 2026 (ir.delta.com).
We lock a binary: Delta Air Lines reports Q2 2026 EPS at or above $0.75, per the company's results release. Confidence 85%.
The June quarter is seasonally Delta's strongest, and its own guide ($1.00–$1.50) sits well above our $0.75 floor. We hold 85%, not higher, because airline earnings are sensitive to jet-fuel prices and late-quarter demand softness, either of which could pull EPS toward the floor. Resolves against Delta's reported Q2 EPS.
RAOSCAFF locks P-131 on 2026-06-26, before the Q2 release. Scored against Delta Air Lines' reported Q2 2026 EPS versus a $0.75 floor.
Floor sits below the company's own $1.00–$1.50 guide — fuel-price/demand softness is the disclosed tail.