90% probability Caterpillar's Q2 2026 revenue lands at or above $17.0bn — ~11% below the ~$19bn consensus, backed by a record ~$63bn backlog. A structural-floor call on the machinery bellwether. Resolves 4 Aug 2026.
Consensus for Caterpillar's Q2 2026 is ~$19bn revenue (~15% above Q2 2025) and ~$6.18 EPS, with the company guiding strong sales growth across all three segments and a record ~$63bn backlog. Our $17.0bn floor sits ~11% below consensus. Source: Caterpillar Q2 2026 results, 4 Aug 2026 (caterpillar.com/investors).
We lock a binary: Caterpillar reports Q2 2026 revenue at or above $17.0 billion, per the company's results release. Confidence 90%.
Caterpillar's record ~$63bn backlog and broad-based segment growth underpin a high-teens-billions revenue quarter; our $17.0bn floor is ~11% under the ~$19bn consensus. Confidence 90%, not higher, because heavy-equipment demand is cyclical and tariff/dealer-inventory swings can move a quarter. Resolves against Caterpillar's reported Q2 revenue.
RAOSCAFF locks P-132 on 2026-06-26, before the Q2 release. Scored against Caterpillar's reported Q2 2026 revenue versus a $17.0bn floor.
Structural floor ~11% below consensus, backed by a record backlog — a cyclical/tariff air-pocket is the tail.