90% probability Verizon's Q2 2026 adjusted EPS lands at or above $1.15 — ~9% below the ~$1.27 consensus, on a defensive cash-generative telecom that raised its FY guide to 5–6% EPS growth. Resolves 21 Jul 2026.
Consensus for Verizon's Q2 2026 is ~$1.27 adjusted EPS on ~$35.5bn revenue; the company raised its FY2026 adjusted-EPS growth outlook to 5–6% (from 4–5%) at Q1. Our $1.15 floor sits ~9% below consensus. Source: Verizon Q2 2026 results, 21 Jul 2026 (verizon.com/about/investors).
We lock a binary: Verizon reports Q2 2026 adjusted EPS at or above $1.15, per the company's results release. Confidence 90%.
Verizon's subscription-heavy, cash-generative model produces stable quarterly EPS, and it raised its FY2026 adjusted-EPS growth outlook to 5–6%; our $1.15 floor is ~9% below the ~$1.27 consensus. Confidence 90%, not higher, for the tail of a competitive promo war or an integration/cost surprise. Resolves against Verizon's reported adjusted EPS.
RAOSCAFF locks P-133 on 2026-06-26, before the Q2 release. Scored against Verizon's reported Q2 2026 adjusted EPS versus a $1.15 floor.
Structural floor ~9% below consensus on a defensive telecom — a promo war/integration surprise is the tail.