92% probability BlackRock's Q2 2026 quarter-end AUM lands at or above $13.0 trillion — ~6% below the $13.9T reported at end-Q1. A structural floor on the world's largest asset manager. Resolves ~15 Jul 2026.
BlackRock reported $13.9 trillion of assets under management at 31 Mar 2026 (Q1 EPS $14.06). Our $13.0T floor sits ~6% below that level — clearing it requires AUM NOT to fall ~6% on a combination of market moves and net flows. Source: BlackRock Q2 2026 results, ~15 Jul 2026 (blackrock.com).
We lock a binary: BlackRock reports Q2 2026 quarter-end assets under management at or above $13.0 trillion, per the company's results release. Confidence 92%.
BlackRock's AUM grows with markets and persistent net inflows (iShares, institutional); from $13.9T at end-Q1, our $13.0T floor only fails on a ~6% combined market-plus-flows drawdown in the quarter. Confidence 92%, not higher, for the tail of a sharp equity/bond sell-off into quarter-end. Resolves against the reported quarter-end AUM.
RAOSCAFF locks P-134 on 2026-06-26. Scored against BlackRock's reported Q2 2026 quarter-end AUM versus a $13.0T floor.
Structural floor ~6% below the end-Q1 $13.9T — a sharp quarter-end market sell-off is the only realistic miss path.