92% probability ServiceNow's Q2 2026 subscription revenue lands at or above $3.80bn — just under its own $3.815–$3.820bn guide (21–21.5% cc growth). A guidance-floor call on highly recurring SaaS revenue. Resolves 29 Jul 2026.
ServiceNow guided Q2 2026 subscription revenue to $3.815–$3.820bn (21–21.5% YoY constant-currency growth, ~125bps from the Armis deal). Our $3.80bn floor sits just below the low end of that guide. SaaS subscription revenue is highly recurring and predictable. Source: ServiceNow Q2 2026 results, 29 Jul 2026 (investor.servicenow.com).
We lock a binary: ServiceNow reports Q2 2026 subscription revenue at or above $3.80 billion, per the company's results release. Confidence 92%.
ServiceNow's subscription revenue is contracted and recurring, making it one of the most forecastable lines in software; the company guided $3.815–$3.820bn and our $3.80bn floor sits just below that. Confidence 92%, not higher, for the residual of an FX swing or an unusually large early-churn event. Resolves against the reported subscription revenue.
RAOSCAFF locks P-135 on 2026-06-26, before the Q2 release. Scored against ServiceNow's reported Q2 2026 subscription revenue versus a $3.80bn floor.
Floor sits just below the company's own $3.815–$3.820bn guide — a cushioned guidance-floor on recurring revenue.