82% probability the US August 2026 headline CPI prints at or below 3.7% year-on-year — a ceiling above the ~3.4% consensus, on inflation stuck in the low-to-mid 3s. Resolves 11 Sep 2026 via the BLS.
US headline CPI has run in the low-to-mid 3% range through 2026; the consensus for the August print is ~3.4% YoY (headline +0.2% MoM). Our 3.7% ceiling sits above consensus, so it fails only on a hotter-than-expected upside surprise. Source: BLS CPI report for August 2026, released 11 Sep 2026 (bls.gov).
We lock a binary: the US August 2026 headline (all-items) CPI inflation rate prints at or below 3.7% year-on-year, per the BLS. Confidence 82%.
Headline CPI has held in the low-to-mid 3s all year and the consensus is ~3.4%, ~0.3pt under our ceiling. We hold 82%, not higher, because a tariff pass-through or an energy spike could push a single month above 3.7% — inflation surprises are the disclosed tail. Resolves against the first-published BLS August headline CPI.
RAOSCAFF locks P-136 on 2026-08-13, before the August CPI release. Scored against the US August 2026 headline CPI year-on-year rate versus a 3.7% ceiling.
Ceiling sits above the ~3.4% consensus — a tariff/energy upside surprise is the disclosed tail.