95% probability the Bank of Canada holds its policy rate at 2.25% on 2 September 2026 — a seventh straight hold, with markets pricing ~1% odds of a change. A near-certain no-change call. Resolves 2 Sep 2026.
The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.25% for six consecutive announcements; bond markets price a high probability of no change on 2 Sep with only ~1% odds of a 25bp move. Our call: the rate is held at 2.25%. Source: Bank of Canada rate announcement, 2 Sep 2026 (bankofcanada.ca).
We lock a binary: the Bank of Canada leaves its overnight policy rate unchanged at 2.25% at its 2 September 2026 decision, per the rate announcement. Confidence 95%.
With inflation near target and six consecutive holds, the Bank has signalled a prolonged pause; bond-market pricing puts the odds of any change at roughly 1%. Confidence 95%, not higher, for the residual of a shock data print or a surprise inter-meeting shift. Resolves against the published rate decision.
RAOSCAFF locks P-137 on 2026-08-13, before the decision. Scored on whether the Bank of Canada's overnight policy rate stays at 2.25%.
Seventh straight hold expected — a shock data print is the only realistic miss path.