95% probability the RBA does not cut at its 29 September 2026 meeting — the cash rate stays at or above the current 4.35%. The Bank has hiked 75bps this year; a cut is off the table. We lock the near-certain no-cut side and disclose that the hold-vs-hike direction is NOT predicted. Resolves 29 Sep 2026.
The RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% on 11 Aug 2026, having hiked 75bps this year to counter sticky inflation; swap pricing puts ~40% on a further hike this year and a cut is not in play. A hold-vs-hike coin-flip is un-lockable as a direction, so we lock the near-certain side both outcomes share — the rate does not fall below 4.35%. Source: RBA monetary policy decision, 29 Sep 2026 (rba.gov.au).
We lock a binary: the RBA does not cut the cash rate at its 29 September 2026 meeting — the cash rate stays at or above the current 4.35%. Confidence 95%. We explicitly do NOT predict the hold-vs-hike direction; only the near-certain no-cut side.
With the RBA having tightened 75bps this year and Governor Bullock calling inflation too high, a cut is off the table, while a September hold vs hike is a genuine toss-up (~40% hike priced). Locking a sub-55% direction would violate our doctrine, so we lock the outcome both a hold and a hike share — the rate does not go below 4.35%. Confidence 95%, not higher, for the tail of an abrupt dovish pivot on a sharp growth shock. Resolves against the published RBA decision.
RAOSCAFF locks P-138 on 2026-08-13, before the decision. Scored on whether the RBA cash rate stays at or above 4.35% (i.e. is not cut). The hold-vs-hike direction is not predicted.
The no-cut side, locked honestly — the direction of a hold vs a hike is deliberately not predicted.