85% probability Alibaba's Cloud Intelligence external revenue grows at least 30% YoY in the June quarter — below the 40% posted last quarter, on accelerating AI-cloud demand. A structural-floor call on Chinese big-tech cloud. Resolves 20 Aug 2026.
Alibaba's Cloud Intelligence Group external revenue grew 40% YoY in the March quarter (FQ4 FY26), with triple-digit AI-related revenue growth for the 11th straight quarter and AI now ~30% of external cloud revenue. Our 30% floor sits below the recent pace. Source: Alibaba June-quarter 2026 results, 20 Aug 2026 (alibabagroup.com).
We lock a binary: Alibaba's Cloud Intelligence Group external revenue grows at least 30% year-on-year in the June quarter, per the company's results. Confidence 85%.
Alibaba's cloud has re-accelerated on AI-infrastructure demand — 40% external growth last quarter, with AI revenue up triple-digits for eleven straight quarters — so a 30% floor is a step down, not a stretch. We hold 85%, not higher, because cloud growth can decelerate on capacity constraints, competition, or a China-macro slowdown, and the reported segment cut can shift. Resolves against the reported Cloud external revenue growth.
RAOSCAFF locks P-139 on 2026-08-13, before the June-quarter release. Scored on whether Alibaba's Cloud Intelligence external revenue grows at least 30% YoY.
Floor sits ~10pts below last quarter's 40% cloud growth — a cloud deceleration is the disclosed tail.