85% probability Lululemon's Q2 FY2026 revenue lands at or above $2.4bn — below the ~$2.55bn estimate, on a brand that guided its full year down to flat-to-minus-1% yet is not contracting the top line that hard this quarter. Resolves 4 Sep 2026.
Analysts expect Lululemon Q2 FY2026 revenue of ~$2.55bn; the company cut its FY2026 revenue outlook to flat-to-down-1% and guided Q2 EPS to $1.76–$1.81 (well below prior forecasts) on tariff-driven margin pressure. Our $2.4bn floor sits ~6% below the revenue estimate — a top-line floor, distinct from the guided-down earnings. Source: Lululemon Q2 FY2026 results, 4 Sep 2026 (corporate.lululemon.com).
We lock a binary: Lululemon reports Q2 fiscal-2026 revenue at or above $2.4 billion, per the company's results release. Confidence 85%.
Lululemon's pain is on margins (a ~410bps gross-margin hit, EPS guided to $1.76–$1.81) rather than a collapsing top line — its FY guide of flat-to-down-1% off a ~$10.5bn base still implies a Q2 near ~$2.5bn. Our $2.4bn revenue floor sits ~6% below the estimate. We hold 85%, not higher, because a sharper North-America demand air-pocket could pull revenue toward the floor. Resolves against Lululemon's reported Q2 revenue.
RAOSCAFF locks P-140 on 2026-08-13, before the Q2 release. Scored against Lululemon's reported Q2 FY2026 net revenue versus a $2.4bn floor.
A top-line floor ~6% below the estimate — the guided-down earnings are a margin story, not a revenue collapse.