93% probability the SNB holds its policy rate at 0.00% on 25 September 2026 — a hold expected by 40 of 41 economists, with inflation on target and the franc steady. Resolves 25 Sep 2026.
A Reuters poll (Sep 17–22) had 40 of 41 economists expecting the SNB to hold its policy rate at 0.00% on 25 Sep — its first pause since December 2023 — with inflation on target, the franc steady, and Chairman Schlegel flagging the 'undesirable side effects' of negative rates. One economist saw a cut to −0.25%. Source: SNB monetary policy assessment, 25 Sep 2026 (snb.ch).
We lock a binary: the Swiss National Bank leaves its policy rate unchanged at 0.00% at its 25 September 2026 assessment, per the SNB release. Confidence 93%.
With 40 of 41 polled economists expecting a hold, inflation on target and a steady franc, the SNB is set to pause; already at the lowest rate among major central banks, it is reluctant to return to negatives. We hold 93%, not higher, because the SNB is unusually willing to surprise on the franc — a sudden safe-haven surge could still tip a cut. Resolves against the published assessment.
RAOSCAFF locks P-142 on 2026-08-13, before the assessment. Scored on whether the SNB policy rate stays at 0.00%.
Near-unanimous hold expected — a sudden franc surge forcing a cut is the only realistic miss path.