92% probability US advance retail & food-services sales for August 2026 come in higher than a year earlier — extending a ~10-month growth streak. A structural data-floor call on the US consumer. Resolves ~16 Sep 2026.
US advance retail & food-services sales have risen for roughly ten straight months; consensus for the August month-on-month print is modestly positive (~+0.3%, with bank forecasts spanning about -0.5% to +0.6%). A year-on-year decline would require an abrupt consumer reversal. Source: US Census advance monthly retail report for August 2026, ~16 Sep 2026 (census.gov/retail).
We lock a binary: US advance retail & food-services sales for August 2026 are higher than August 2025, per the Census advance report. Confidence 92%. (Note: the month-on-month change is a genuine toss-up; we lock the robust year-on-year direction, not the MoM number.)
Retail sales are nominal, so steady demand plus modest price drift keep the year-on-year comparison positive; the series has grown for about ten straight months. Confidence 92%, not higher, for the tail of a sharp consumer air-pocket or a large negative revision. Resolves against the first-published Census August figure versus a year earlier.
RAOSCAFF locks P-144 on 2026-08-13. Scored on whether US advance retail & food-services sales for August 2026 are higher than a year earlier.
Locked on the robust YoY direction — the MoM number is a toss-up and is deliberately not the criterion.