93% probability euro-area annual inflation prints at or below 3.5% in the September 2026 flash estimate — a ceiling set above the 2.9% July flash and the recent 2.8–3.2% band. Resolves ~1 Oct 2026.
Eurostat's flash estimate put euro-area annual inflation at 2.9% in July 2026, up from 2.8% in June, with core at 2.5%. Our ceiling sits 0.6pt above the July print. Source: Eurostat euro indicators, 31 July 2026.
We lock a binary: the euro-area flash annual inflation estimate for September 2026 prints at or below 3.5% year-on-year, per Eurostat. Confidence 93%.
Euro-area headline inflation has held in a narrow 2.8–3.2% band through mid-2026, printing 2.9% in the July flash against core at 2.5%. Clearing 3.5% inside two months would take a sharp fresh shock. Confidence 93%, not higher, because energy is the visible pressure point — it ran at a 10.0% annual rate in July, and a further energy spike is the disclosed tail. Scored on the first-published flash estimate, not a later revision.
RAOSCAFF locks P-145 on 2026-08-13, before the September flash estimate. Scored against the euro-area September 2026 flash annual HICP rate versus a 3.5% ceiling.
Energy ran at a 10.0% annual rate in the July flash — a further energy spike is the disclosed tail.