RaoscaffResearch
Prediction Series · Lock · Issue P-147
Prediction Series · P-147

CrowdStrike's floor — ≥$1.40bn, locked at 94%.

94% probability CrowdStrike's FQ2 FY2027 total revenue lands at or above $1.40bn — below the company's own $1.436–$1.442bn guide. A guidance-floor call on the cybersecurity bellwether. Resolves 26 Aug 2026.

Type · Prediction Lock · guidance-floor threshold Locked · 2026-08-13 · before the FQ2 results Resolves · 2026-08-26 · CrowdStrike FQ2 FY2027 results (ir.crowdstrike.com) Scored · binary: FQ2 FY2027 total revenue ≥$1.40bn yes/no
CrowdStrike FQ2 FY2027 total revenue · our locked floor
≥ $1.40bn
total revenue · vs a $1.436–$1.442bn company guide

CrowdStrike guided FQ2 fiscal-2027 total revenue to $1.436–$1.442bn, within a full-year FY2027 guide of $5.915–$5.959bn (23–24% growth). Our floor sits below the low end of that range. Source: CrowdStrike FQ1 FY2027 results, 3 June 2026 (ir.crowdstrike.com).

— 1 · The Locked Call

CrowdStrike FQ2 FY2027 total revenue lands ≥$1.40bn — P = 0.94.

We lock a binary: CrowdStrike reports fiscal second-quarter 2027 total revenue at or above $1.40 billion, per the company's results release. Confidence 94%.

— 2 · Why it's nail-able

Subscription revenue is largely contracted, and our floor sits below the company's own guide.

CrowdStrike's revenue is overwhelmingly subscription-based and recognised from a contracted base, which makes a quarter unusually visible one quarter ahead. The company guided FQ2 to $1.436–$1.442bn and grew 26% in FQ1; our floor is set roughly 2.5% below the low end of its own range. Confidence 94%, not higher, because a guidance miss of that size is rare but not impossible. Resolves against reported total revenue.

Locked on 2026-08-13 — scored against CrowdStrike's reported FQ2 FY2027 total revenue.

RAOSCAFF locks P-147 on 2026-08-13, before the FQ2 release. Scored against CrowdStrike's reported FQ2 fiscal-2027 total revenue versus a $1.40bn floor.

Locked
2026-08-13 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves
2026-08-26 — CrowdStrike FQ2 FY2027 results, released after the US market close
Source
CrowdStrike FQ2 FY2027 earnings release, total revenue line (ir.crowdstrike.com)
Scored by
Binary: YES if FQ2 FY2027 total revenue ≥$1,400,000,000; NO otherwise. Total revenue, not subscription revenue alone.

Floor call — the scored threshold sits below the company's own guide; upside is open and not scored. Release lands after the US close on 26 Aug (early 27 Aug IST).