93% probability UPS reports Q3 2026 consolidated revenue at or above $21.0bn — comfortably below the $22.8bn second quarter and a full-year guide raised to about $91.2bn. Resolves ~28 Oct 2026.
UPS reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of $22.8bn and raised full-year 2026 guidance to approximately $91.2bn consolidated revenue, up from about $89.7bn. Our floor sits well below the Q2 run-rate. Source: UPS 2Q 2026 earnings, 28 July 2026 (investors.ups.com).
We lock a binary: UPS reports third-quarter 2026 consolidated revenue at or above $21.0 billion, per the company's earnings release. Confidence 93%.
UPS reported $22.8bn in the second quarter and raised its full-year outlook to about $91.2bn, implying a second half at least as large as the first. Our floor is set roughly 8% below the Q2 print. Confidence 93%, not higher, because management explicitly guided third-quarter US domestic revenue to be roughly flat and parcel volumes remain the swing factor. Scored on reported consolidated revenue, not any segment.
RAOSCAFF locks P-148 on 2026-08-13, before the Q3 release. Scored against UPS's reported third-quarter 2026 consolidated revenue versus a $21.0bn floor.
Management guided Q3 US domestic revenue to roughly flat — a parcel-volume deterioration is the disclosed tail.