88% probability Constellation Energy keeps its FY2026 adjusted operating EPS guidance floor at or above $11.50 per share at its Q3 results — the low end of a range it raised in August on nuclear and data-centre demand. Resolves ~4 Nov 2026.
Constellation raised full-year 2026 adjusted operating earnings guidance to $11.50–$12.50 per share, from $11.00–$12.00, at its second-quarter results on 5 August 2026. Our threshold is the low end of that raised range. Source: Constellation Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results (constellationenergy.com).
We lock a binary: Constellation Energy's full-year 2026 adjusted operating earnings guidance floor is at or above $11.50 per share as stated at its third-quarter 2026 results. Confidence 88%.
Constellation lifted its FY2026 adjusted operating earnings range to $11.50–$12.50 in August, citing commercial outperformance, higher realised customer margins and new contracted clean-power deals. A company that raises guidance with one quarter left rarely walks the floor back down. Confidence 88%, not higher, because a nuclear outage, a sharp power-price move or a one-off charge could force a revision. Scored on the guidance range stated in the Q3 release — not on reported quarterly EPS.
RAOSCAFF locks P-149 on 2026-08-13, before the Q3 release. Scored against the low end of Constellation's full-year 2026 adjusted operating EPS guidance as stated at its third-quarter results.
A nuclear outage, a sharp power-price move or a one-off charge is the disclosed tail.